I always felt like quarterbacks were underrated in fantasy football. In most scoring formats, they bring in more points than any other position (yes, including the lauded running backs). However, most people tend to write off quarterbacks as not worthy of a high pick because they all contribute the same number of points. I feel like the point differences between a mid-high level quarterback and a mid-high level running back are about the same.
In a standard Yahoo fantasy league, I’m going to look at the difference in fantasy points between the top ranked QB and RB and the 10th ranked QB and RB. The highest ranked QB was Peyton Manning, with 356 points, and the tenth was Aaron Brooks with 187 points, a difference of 169 points. The highest ranked RB was Shaun Alexander, with 194 points, and the 10th ranked RB was Willis McGahee with just 127 points. The point spread here is only 67 points. Because leagues typically have 2 running backs and only 1 quarterback, Alexander is compared to the 20th-ranked running back, Thomas Jones, who scored 97 points. Between the first and the 20th, there is a difference of 97 points.
In addition to having a much lower point spread, riders accumulate far fewer total points. The best RB, Shaun Alexander, only has 7 points more than the 10th QB, Aaron Brooks. The only reason running backs are ranked so much higher than quarterbacks is because, for no real reason, people tend to sign running backs early. If you don’t pick a running back early, you’ll be stuck with a Warrick Dunn or a Brian Westbrook, who, while still good, are far worse than the best running backs.
Most QBs had a career season last year, which can be attributed to the new pass interference rules. So keep in mind that next year, after defensive backs and umpires adjust to the new rules, QB numbers overall may drop.
The QB ranking of the 2005 season:
1. Peyton Manning: He threw for 4,500 yards and 49 touchdowns last year, so he should be your best overall pick, not just top quarterback. I don’t think he’ll ever get 49 touchdowns again, since his previous career high was 29. But he should still get 40+ touchdowns with similar yardage numbers.
2. Daunte Culpepper: This guy should be a first-rounder. His season garnered almost no media attention, but he had one of the best seasons for a quarterback, setting an all-time record for combined yards. He had a combined 41 touchdowns and threw/rushed for 5,100 yards. In fact, in leagues that emphasize yardage, he could be more valuable than Peyton Manning. Like Peyton Manning, his record-setting season came out of nowhere; his previous career highs were 4,400 combined yards and 33 touchdowns. Personally, I think he’ll do just fine without Randy Moss (I think Daunte benefited Moss’s numbers more than Moss helped his). Nate Burleson is a good #1 receiver, and expect something around 35 touchdowns and 4,600 combined yards from him.
3. Donovan McNabb: TO and Westbrook are done with their holds, and McNabb appears poised to post numbers similar to last season. He expects more than 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns.
4. Trent Green: He tends to get overlooked, but he’s been more than solid for several years despite not having wide receivers. If Eddie Kennison can repeat last year, and if Marc Boerigter, a touchdown machine, can play well after injury, he’ll be solid. Samie Parker could also play a big role in the Chiefs’ offense. I’m going to say he gets 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.
5. Jake Delhomme: He’s a very good quarterback, and with the return of Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, Deshaun Foster and the rest of the team from injury, he should have a chance to improve on his numbers from last year. The emergence of Keary Colbert last year was a pleasant surprise, and his continued development will draw attention away from Steve Smith and open up the passing game. Expect 28+ touchdowns and 3,600 yards from him.
6. Drew Brees: His season literally came out of nowhere, but he had 3,150 yards and 29 touchdowns, and with Reche Caldwell and Keenan McCardell back from injury, he might even do better. Having Antonio Gates back from his resistance also helps his value. He should have 30 touchdowns and 3,300 yards.
7. Tom Brady: Tom Brady is a solid starter, typically putting up around 25 touchdowns and 3,700 yards each year. The Patriots lost David Patten this offseason, but with the way they distribute the ball, it shouldn’t be a factor. They brought back Ben Watson and signed a bunch of receivers, including Tim Dwight and David Terrell. Deion Branch and David Givens are a highly underrated top 2, expecting about 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns from Brady.
8. Marc Bulger: Has an incredibly talented group of wide receivers, led by Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. He is also in an offensive system that is very happy with the passes. I hear people say that his big year will come this year, but I don’t think so. He said 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.
9. Brett Favre: Not many people would prefer Favre this short, but the loss of both starting shooting guards (Wahle and Rivera) on the offensive line last year is troubling. This team’s offensive success was due in large part to its stellar offensive line, and Brett Favre certainly won’t have as much time in the pocket as he did last year. But it’s hard to bet against Favre, and I’m going to say he has 3,000 yards and about 22 touchdowns.
10. Jake Plummer: He throws too many interceptions for people’s liking, but he gets the numbers. He may not want to include him in a league that heavily penalizes interceptions, but his stats from last year of 4,100 yards and 27 touchdowns are compelling in every other league. Last year was by far a career year for him, so I’m going to say he has 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.