The Middle East has been in dispute for decades. However, it may now well become part of a much larger problem that will influence the entire East African region, which may become a playing field for power games between the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and China. .

“A crisis in the Gulf is unfolding dramatically in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. Some argue that it could tear the entire region apart. After nearly 30 years of conflict and instability, Somalia is particularly vulnerable,” writes Mary Harper from BBC Africa. According to Rashid Abdi, Horn of Africa project manager at International Crisis Group, Somalia has become a chessboard in the power game between Qatar and Turkey on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and their allies on the other. .

So why is this so and why can we expect the crisis to spread?

1. The UAE is building a huge military base in Berbera, Somaliland.

It is a highly strategic location and will serve to confirm the UAE’s position in the region. The United States and the former Soviet Union built their bases there decades ago, as well as one of the longest runways on the continent, which is more than 4 km (2.5 miles) long. Qatar and its military power, Turkey, will not like the fact that the influence of their political rivals is increasing.

2. Dubai-based DP World will take over the port of Berbera.

Landlocked Ethiopia is also involved, with a 19% stake, seeing Berbera as a useful alternative to the congested and expensive Djibouti port on which it depends. But the port of Berbera is part of Somaliland, an internationally unrecognized entity that Somalia considers part of its territory. Earlier this month, Somalia’s parliament voted to annul the port agreement that infuriates the UAE. The Arabs also fear losing an important commercial asset, as the port exports millions of live animals to the Gulf each year.

3. Both China and Saudi Arabia have built military bases in the small country of Djibouti.

In addition to strengthening their military position in the region, they are also trying to increase their economic and cultural influence. Beijing has invested more than $ 14 billion in infrastructure development. Saudi Arabia has spent generously on social welfare projects for the country’s poor and built homes, schools and mosques for its growing Yemeni refugee population, all while promoting the traditional Saudi model of Islamic culture, which is disliked by more liberal countries. from the Middle East.

4. The UAE is bypassing the federal government in Somalia by reaching agreements with the regional states of Somalia.

These five states have a conflictual relationship with the central government and with each other. Some have received military training, equipment and funding from the Emirates. DP World and its subsidiaries are negotiating agreements to manage a series of ports in at least three of them. This strengthening of local states may increase tensions in the traditionally politically unstable country with active separatist movements.

5. Turkey has its largest military base outside the motherland in Mogadishu, Somalia.

More than 10,000 Somali soldiers train there under the supervision of Turkey. While Turkey’s relations with the Horn of Africa date back to the Ottoman Empire, the current government of President Tayyip Erdogan has become a close ally of the Somali government in recent years. This strengthening of Somalia’s military power is closely watched by neighboring Ethiopia, which has previously fought Somali jihadist militias and fears political tensions on its borders.

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