Every year, the NFL sees a basement dweller from the previous year’s season rise from the ashes and surprise the public with a sudden boon of competition. Figuring out who that team could be before it happens is nearly impossible, mainly because the team’s chemistry and trust don’t show up on paper. Yet, year after year, we idiots try like hell to clear the film out of our crystal ball and, with careful analysis, gain the upper hand over the mouth dart-throwing randoms.
However, this time, I am not going to utter my highest chance of success. Instead, I’ve identified a handful of teams that improved the most in the offseason and hopefully one of those on the list bounces back so I can finally prove that a close examination of the facts consistently trumps dumb luck and gut feeling.
BUFFALO
After a strong offseason, there’s genuine optimism in Buffalo for the first time in more than a decade. Despite a second-half meltdown, the Bills showed flashes in 2011 that justified hopes of a semi-resurgence. With the addition of $100 million Super Mario, the Bills have put together a very high-profile (on paper) pass rush. While Shawne Merriman, Mario Williams and first-round pick CB Stephon Gilmore give the defense some much-needed swagger, the offense was also bolstered with the addition of NC State WR TJ Graham and the return of injured Marcus Easley at wide receiver.
Although quarterback Vince Young has been an inconsistent product throughout his career, the prevailing opinion is that if he were to succeed in any NFL offense, the Chan Gailey distribution is the better choice. If quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald’s physical limitations surface again in 2012, he won’t be surprised to see more of Vince in the mix.
From a fantasy perspective, the Bills’ top two options remain versatile RB Fred Jackson and unpredictable WR Stevie Johnson. Although RB CJ Spiller had bursts in 2011, he’ll still play second fiddle to the AFC’s most underrated running back. Which WR steps up to play Johnson is the biggest question mark this year, and we’re counting on the talented Easley. David Nelson will once again fill the slots position. Nelson’s solid game made Roscoe Parrish expandable. He proved to be a favorite target for Fitz last year and sleeps well for the later rounds.
KANSAS CITY
Arguably no team was hit harder by injuries in 2011 than Kansas City. The early loss of a star collection of players to knee injuries (RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki) set the tone for the rest of the year.
While we remain skeptical of quarterback Matt Cassell’s grit as a starting quarterback in the NFL, there’s no denying that he’s much better than the dud that was Tyler Palko. Todd Haley’s stubbornness in sticking with Palko, arguably the worst quarterback to start the 21st century, ultimately led to his departure. With Romeo Crennel taking over the coaching reins, there will be a much greater emphasis on running and KC will have an impressive set of lights and thunder with Peyton Hillis and Jamal Charles. They further strengthened that offense with the addition of veteran tackle Eric Winston from Houston.
While there’s plenty of skill at WR, with Jon Baldwin and Dwayne Bowe both lack discipline and don’t give the Chiefs the consistency they need at the position. At the time this was written, Bowe had not yet reported to the camp. The staff hopes that rookie WR Devon Wylie (Fresno) can add a much-needed element of speed to the unit. Wylie is a Wes Welker replica and should thrive in the slots. He could be worth a flyer in the later fantasy rounds, especially in the dynasty leagues.
The true strength of the team is on the other side of the ball. With one of the best defenses in the league, the acquisition of former first rounder and veteran Stanford Routt from rival Oakland really strengthens the defensive backfield. And, while some say drafting NT Dontari Poe (Memphis) was a catch up to No. 11 overall, his formidable size will quickly help bolster the run defense.
The bottom line is that Kansas City brings a wealth of talent to the field. They finished 7-9 in 2011 with a good chunk of their roster on IR. With the highly respected Crennel back in charge, we expect the Chiefs to challenge for the division title.